Case-Shiller: Housing Prices Increased 0.7% in March

S&P and Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for March. January closing prices include some contracts signed in November, so this data has a significant lag.

The Month-over-Month (MoM) increase in the SA Case-Shiller Index was 0.42%. This was the second increase following seven consecutive declines [1].

Case-Shiller NA

On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices declined monthly in 5 of 20 Case-Shiller cities. The most significant monthly declines seasonally adjusted were in Seattle (-0.9%), Phoenix (-0.4%), and Las Vegas (-0.4%). Seasonally adjusted, Seattle has fallen 12.5% from the peak in May 2022, and San Francisco is down 11.3% from the peak. 19 of 20 cities have seen price declines from the recent peak (SA). Chicago is the exception.

From S&P:

Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 1.3% month-over-month increase in March, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 1.6% and 1.5%, respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.4%, while the 10-City Composite gained 0.6% and 20-City Composites posted an increase of 0.5%.

The Composite 10 index is up 0.6% in March (SA) and down 3.7% from the recent peak in June 2022. The Composite 20 index is up 0.5% (SA) in March and down 4.2% from the recent peak in June 2022. The National index is up 0.4% (SA) in March and is down 2.3% from the peak in June 2022.

Case-Shiller Comp

The Composite 10 SA is down 0.8% year-over-year. The Composite 20 SA is down 1.1% year-over-year. The National index SA is up 0.7% year-over-year.

We can also compare existing home months-of-supply from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) vs. the seasonally adjusted month-to-month price change in the Case-Shiller National Index (From January 1999 through March 2023).

The last eleven months are in black showing a shift in the relationship, and prices fell for seven months with low levels of inventory.

In March, the months-of-supply was at 2.6 months, and the Case-Shiller National Index (SA) increased 0.42% month-over-month. Historically prices haven’t declined until inventory reached 6 months of supply. In the April existing home sales report, the NAR reported months-of-supply increased to 2.9 months. The year-over-year Case-Shiller house price increase was below expectations.

Case-Shiller Comp

The March report was mostly for contracts signed in the November through February period and was likely boosted by somewhat lower rates in the December through February period.


[1] S&P Global | S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Rebound Countinued in March

Stephanie Wu 吳珊妮
Stephanie Wu 吳珊妮
FICC Derivative Automation Strat Assoicate

My research interests include distributed robotics, mobile computing and programmable matter.